Sparks of AGI: Is GPT-4 First Contact?
The machines aren't dumb, but the debate about intelligence continues
A question that comes up a lot around these AI systems is something to the effect of “Well, just how smart are they really?”
In a related paper and video, Sébastien Bubeck1 suggests that this may be the wrong question. It’s not necessarily important how these systems stack up against our known references for intelligence, but instead how capable they are in their own right.
We can define AGI as a system that is able to learn and understand intellectual tasks, and which ultimately has the ability to surpass human capabilities in the performance of economically valuable work.2
Even when comparing GPT-4 to known references for intelligence, there are many shortcomings and flaws. Still, focusing on those aspects and dismissing abilities means that we are missing what is perhaps the most critical aspect, ChatGPT’s GPT-4 is very capable.
I find this exceptionally compelling for a few reasons. As a baseline, this is impressive in it’s own right. However, this is not a system which was put together for the explicit purpose of attempting to become AGI. It’s a “next word prediction machine” and yet somehow we see in it what appears to be a semblance of intelligence. Still, “With more training we're going to unlock a lot more than what we currently have. What we have is currently amazing, but it's far from everything that we can do with this technique. There is a lot more on the horizon." Sébastien continues, “Does it understand? I'm not sure” … ”Maybe it's not exactly what we define as intelligence, but maybe we need to define a new type of intelligence to explain what it is.”
Personally, I’m going with my dad’s definition: “ChatGPT is the ultimate bullshitter.”
The machine may not have any idea what it is doing, but given the limitations of what it actually understands it seems to be managing exceptionally well.
Sébastien Bubeck’s Website
http://sbubeck.com/
“Overemployed” workers abuse ChatGPT as a supplement to boost productivity.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7begx/overemployed-hustlers-exploit-chatgpt-to-take-on-even-more-full-time-jobs